ACCELERATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
Following the release of migration statistics for 2005, it can be seen that the rate of demographic change in Britain has accelerated well past that of the USA.
Demographic change is a measurement of the change of the composition of the population within a year from its base at the beginning of a year. It, therefore, for example, treats immigrants already in the population as part of the original population base figures at the beginning of each year. Fertility and mortality are not considered here.
While most comment relates to immigration, demographic change measures both outmigration of natives as well as the immigration of newcomers together showing how a society changes. (Natives are defined as – in the USA those born in the USA – in the UK British citizens).
The experience of the UK and the USA is quite different. Although the USA does not collect figures for emigration of US citizens, it is estimated that the figure for native born US citizens is about 48,000 per annum. In addition 20% of migrants to the USA return home. These latter are all taken account of in the tables below.
In particular, there is a massive difference in emigration rates of the tertiary-educated. A World Bank report by Frederic Docquier of the University of Lille showed that the UK has by far the highest loss of tertiary-educated among developed countries, and the USA by far the lowest. This, of course, is not a new phenomenon.
The estimate in 2000 of the stock of already-emigrated, tertiary-educated, was:
U.K. 1,542,011
U.S.A. 428,078 (with a population five times that of the U.K.)
Emigration is a subject completely disregarded by the British government and political class.
Unlike the USA, the UK is both a country of immigration and emigration. Immigration as a percentage of the existing population has surpassed the USA immigration percentage since 2002. Emigration has always been a massively higher percentage of the UK’s population than the USA. For the USA to have the same emigration rates as the UK, there would be 600,000 US natives emigrating in 2004 instead of the actual 48,000.
Since 1997 4½ per cent of the UK’s then population has changed, with long-resident British citizens being replaced by non-British with a net increase in total population of about two per cent. The net figures are that, in nine years, 619,000 British citizens have left the UK and 2,014,000 non-British have arrived. The rate of change has accelerated in 2004 and 2005 so that in 70 years nearly 40 per cent of the British population would not be descendants of the 1997 British citizens if present trends of 2004/5 continue. (This excludes trends in mortality and fertility.)
The result of the above is that, since 2002, the demographic transformation of the UK now exceeds that of the USA and, in fact, the rate of demographic change in the UK was, in 2004 and 2005, over 50 per cent higher than the USA.
With all the pressures on the younger generation, eloquently put forward in a recent study by the think-tank REFORM, it is possible to see “British flight” increasing.
The substantial replacement of the British people within a couple of generations is now a possibility. In the USA, the negligible rate of emigration means that the demographic transformation of the USA is far slower.
All figures are for legal immigration only.
UK Demographic Change (all 000’s) (National Statistics)
Net Flow All [a] British citizens [b] Non-British [c] Demographic Change [b+ c] % Population
1997 + 47 - 60 +107 +167 0.27
1998 +139 - 23 +162 +185 0.30
1999 +163 - 23 +186 +209 0.35
2000 +163 - 57 +220 +277 0.46
2001 +172 - 53 +225 +278 0.46
2002 +153 - 91 +244 +335 0.55
2003 +151 - 85 +236 +321 0.53
2004 +222 -120 +342 +462 0.77
2005 +185 -107 +292 +397 0.66
USA Demographic Change (from US Census)
Net Flow All [a] USA native born [b] Non-USA born [c] Demographic Change [b+ c] % Population
2001 1,339,827 -48,000 +1,387,827 +1,435,827 0.50
2002 1,449,334 -48,000 +1,497,334 +1,545,334 0.52
2003 1,286,118 -48,000 +1,334,118 +1,382,118 0.47
2004 1,221,013 -48,000 +1,269,013 +1,317,013 0.44
2005 1,049,526 -48,000 +1,097,526 +1,145,526 0.39
Percentages are based on a UK population of 60 million and a USA population of 298 million.
The estimate for USA native-born emigrants is taken from a US Bureau of Census paper by E. Fernandez (1995). The official US Census estimate is 27,000. Note that the single biggest recipient of US native emigrants is Mexico.
FUTURUS/19 November 2006
Demographic change is a measurement of the change of the composition of the population within a year from its base at the beginning of a year. It, therefore, for example, treats immigrants already in the population as part of the original population base figures at the beginning of each year. Fertility and mortality are not considered here.
While most comment relates to immigration, demographic change measures both outmigration of natives as well as the immigration of newcomers together showing how a society changes. (Natives are defined as – in the USA those born in the USA – in the UK British citizens).
The experience of the UK and the USA is quite different. Although the USA does not collect figures for emigration of US citizens, it is estimated that the figure for native born US citizens is about 48,000 per annum. In addition 20% of migrants to the USA return home. These latter are all taken account of in the tables below.
In particular, there is a massive difference in emigration rates of the tertiary-educated. A World Bank report by Frederic Docquier of the University of Lille showed that the UK has by far the highest loss of tertiary-educated among developed countries, and the USA by far the lowest. This, of course, is not a new phenomenon.
The estimate in 2000 of the stock of already-emigrated, tertiary-educated, was:
U.K. 1,542,011
U.S.A. 428,078 (with a population five times that of the U.K.)
Emigration is a subject completely disregarded by the British government and political class.
Unlike the USA, the UK is both a country of immigration and emigration. Immigration as a percentage of the existing population has surpassed the USA immigration percentage since 2002. Emigration has always been a massively higher percentage of the UK’s population than the USA. For the USA to have the same emigration rates as the UK, there would be 600,000 US natives emigrating in 2004 instead of the actual 48,000.
Since 1997 4½ per cent of the UK’s then population has changed, with long-resident British citizens being replaced by non-British with a net increase in total population of about two per cent. The net figures are that, in nine years, 619,000 British citizens have left the UK and 2,014,000 non-British have arrived. The rate of change has accelerated in 2004 and 2005 so that in 70 years nearly 40 per cent of the British population would not be descendants of the 1997 British citizens if present trends of 2004/5 continue. (This excludes trends in mortality and fertility.)
The result of the above is that, since 2002, the demographic transformation of the UK now exceeds that of the USA and, in fact, the rate of demographic change in the UK was, in 2004 and 2005, over 50 per cent higher than the USA.
With all the pressures on the younger generation, eloquently put forward in a recent study by the think-tank REFORM, it is possible to see “British flight” increasing.
The substantial replacement of the British people within a couple of generations is now a possibility. In the USA, the negligible rate of emigration means that the demographic transformation of the USA is far slower.
All figures are for legal immigration only.
UK Demographic Change (all 000’s) (National Statistics)
Net Flow All [a] British citizens [b] Non-British [c] Demographic Change [b+ c] % Population
1997 + 47 - 60 +107 +167 0.27
1998 +139 - 23 +162 +185 0.30
1999 +163 - 23 +186 +209 0.35
2000 +163 - 57 +220 +277 0.46
2001 +172 - 53 +225 +278 0.46
2002 +153 - 91 +244 +335 0.55
2003 +151 - 85 +236 +321 0.53
2004 +222 -120 +342 +462 0.77
2005 +185 -107 +292 +397 0.66
USA Demographic Change (from US Census)
Net Flow All [a] USA native born [b] Non-USA born [c] Demographic Change [b+ c] % Population
2001 1,339,827 -48,000 +1,387,827 +1,435,827 0.50
2002 1,449,334 -48,000 +1,497,334 +1,545,334 0.52
2003 1,286,118 -48,000 +1,334,118 +1,382,118 0.47
2004 1,221,013 -48,000 +1,269,013 +1,317,013 0.44
2005 1,049,526 -48,000 +1,097,526 +1,145,526 0.39
Percentages are based on a UK population of 60 million and a USA population of 298 million.
The estimate for USA native-born emigrants is taken from a US Bureau of Census paper by E. Fernandez (1995). The official US Census estimate is 27,000. Note that the single biggest recipient of US native emigrants is Mexico.
FUTURUS/19 November 2006